创作:女巫 审核:周旸
  • 基于非洲近100万新生儿的位置和时间,发现PM2.5浓度每立方米增加10μg,婴儿死亡率增加9%,
  • PM2.5对婴儿死亡率的影响在过去的15年中没有减小,不随家庭财富水平的提高而减少;
  • 被调查的30个国家中,22%的婴儿死亡事件源于PM2.5浓度高于最低暴露水平,导致2015年婴儿死亡人数增加449,000人,是已有死亡率估算值的3倍;
  • 本研究将世界范围内空气污染对婴儿死亡率影响的估计值翻倍;
  • PM暴露的减少将对非洲婴儿的健康改善有突出贡献。
Nature [IF:49.962]

Robust relationship between air quality and infant mortality in Africa



2018-06-27, Article

Abstract & Authors:展开

Poor air quality is thought to be an important mortality risk factor globally, but there is little direct evidence from the developing world on how mortality risk varies with changing exposure to ambient particulate matter. Current global estimates apply exposure-response relationships that have been derived mostly from wealthy, mid-latitude countries to spatial population data, and these estimates remain unvalidated across large portions of the globe. Here we combine household survey-based information on the location and timing of nearly 1 million births across sub-Saharan Africa with satellite-based estimates of exposure to ambient respirable particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM) to estimate the impact of air quality on mortality rates among infants in Africa. We find that a 10 μg m increase in PM concentration is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval, 4-14%) rise in infant mortality across the dataset. This effect has not declined over the last 15 years and does not diminish with higher levels of household wealth. Our estimates suggest that PM concentrations above minimum exposure levels were responsible for 22% (95% confidence interval, 9-35%) of infant deaths in our 30 study countries and led to 449,000 (95% confidence interval, 194,000-709,000) additional deaths of infants in 2015, an estimate that is more than three times higher than existing estimates that attribute death of infants to poor air quality for these countries. Upward revision of disease-burden estimates in the studied countries in Africa alone would result in a doubling of current estimates of global deaths of infants that are associated with air pollution, and modest reductions in African PM exposures are predicted to have health benefits to infants that are larger than most known health interventions.

First Authors:
Sam Heft-Neal

Correspondence Authors:
Marshall Burke

All Authors:
Sam Heft-Neal,Jennifer Burney,Eran Bendavid,Marshall Burke